Viewpoint 2009
Opinion, Commentary and News Numismatic

ANA 2009 - It's The Market   [8.17.09]

It's been more than a week since the lights went out on the 2009 American Numismatic Association Convention, and the reviews are in.

The ANA's late summer "World's Fair of Money", is one of the bellwether numismatic events of the year from which buyers and sellers look for market direction. The auctions and bourse floor activity set the tone for the remainder of the year until the Florida United Numismatists Convention in early January.

This year's ANA Convention was held in Los Angeles, a venue that has been highly criticized in the numismatic press, on the PCGS U.S. Coin Forum, and in several dealer commentaries. In my view, we're all being a little too hard on LA.

Personally, I found the Kyoto Grand Hotel to be more than adequate, especially at $102 a night. Even with a $20 round trip taxi fare to the convention center, this is certainly one of the best hotel values that I've had in many years. I dined at Takami and Wokcano, both wonderful, and both within short walks of the host hotel, the Wilshire Grand. However, the ANA Convention isn't really about great hotels and fine dining, it's about coins, and there lies the problem.

My own expectations were modest heading into this numismatic marathon, as the auctions were mostly unexciting, and most dealer inventories have been both thin and boring. Nearly all of the significant coins in the opening Stack's sale were from one consignor, heavily reserved, and buybacks were plenty. One of the highlights was the Finest Known 1817/4 Capped Bust 50c, PCGS AU-50, ex Eliasberg, which edged out the reserve and brought a new high of $356,500.

A small pre-show in Beverly Hills had a slight buzz, probably due to the small venue and restricted group of by-invitation dealers. This was a good buying show for me, including one exceptional coin that I tracked down and wasn't going to leave without.

The Heritage sale, second of the "pre" auctions showed promise and delivered. Stu Levine's Continental Dollars, Steve Duckor's Barber Quarters, gold coins from "The R.M. Phillips Limited Partnership Collection", and Louis Bassano's Silver Commemoratives were all key consignments, and prices seemed relatively strong overall.

With the pre-show and Heritage lead in, it began to look as if this year's ANA would turn out better than expected. Unfortunately, it didn't take long for this little bit of optimism to fade into reality. The official ANA auction by Bowers and Merena was weak in content, and bidders responded in kind. The bourse floor selection didn't pick up the slack as numismatically interesting coins were few and far between.

So, what can we take away from ANA'09? The market continues to be a bit stagnant with buyers cautious and unwilling to get too aggressive, while sellers remain unmotivated, not forced to sell, at least for now, and unwilling to accept this year's discounted price levels. In time, one side or the other will begin to cave.

In defense of Los Angeles, if this were the venue for ANA'08 we would be talking about it as a great location. Yet, any venue for ANA'09 would have likely received lackluster reviews. It's just the market.